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MEDIA ADVISORY

MEDIA ADVISORY: MONDAY PRESS CONFERENCES AT AGU ANNOUNCE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, ADVANCES IN WEATHER PREDICTION

SAN FRANCISCO, California December 7, 2006 --/WORLD-WIRE/-- NCAR and UCAR scientists will participate in several announcements during press conferences on Monday, December 11, at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Reporters who are not at the meeting will be able to attend by telephone (see instructions at the end of this advisory).

NOTE:
All times are Pacific Standard.

9:00 am: Climate change affecting outer atmosphere In a sign of the far-reaching impacts of climate change, new research shows that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will produce a 3 percent reduction in the density of the thermosphere, Earth's outermost atmosphere, by 2017. A team of researchers led by Liying Qian and Stanley Solomon produced this estimate using a computer model of the outer atmosphere that incorporates the solar cycle as well as the gradual increase of carbon dioxide.

Participants:
    --Stanley Solomon: Scientist, NCAR, Boulder
    --Liying Qian: Scientist, NCAR, Boulder
    --Robert Dickinson: Professor, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta AGU Session SH22A

10:00 am: Arctic warming and its impacts New research is taking aim at understanding the linkages within the Arctic system as a whole, and the Arctic's connections with the broader Earth system. Although the panelists are not from NCAR, they will discuss new research by NCAR scientist Marika Holland, which indicates that summertime Arctic sea ice may begin an abrupt retreat within a couple of decades and virtually disappear by about 2040. Holland will attend the press conference.

Participants:
    --Larry Hinzman: Professor and Deputy Director, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
    --Mark Serreze: Senior Research Scientist, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
    --Charles Vorosmarty: Research Professor, Director, Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham AGU Sessions U21D/U22A/U23A/U24A, C33B
2:00 pm: Improved weather forecasting with FORMOSAT/COSMIC A suite of microsatellites, launched earlier this year, is already helping to improve weather forecasting and may improve cyclone and hurricane forecasting. COSMIC data also benefits climate and space weather monitoring. The high resolution data sets are unprecedented in such areas as weather forecasting, the global planetary boundary layer, the global tropopause, and the top and bottom of the ionosphere.

Participants:
    --Richard A. Anthes: President, UCAR, Boulder, Colorado
    --C. Z. Frank Cheng: Chief Scientist, National Space Organization, Hsin-Chu, Taiwan; Director, Plasma and Space Science Center, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
    --Christian Rocken: Chief Scientist, COSMIC Program Office, UCAR, Boulder, Colorado AGU Session A14A/A21B
3:00 pm Better predictions of hurricane intensity The record-setting 2004-2005 hurricane season highlighted the importance and urgency of improving hurricane intensity forecasting, which is lagging far behind the improvement in hurricane track forecasting. NCAR scientist Greg Holland will present a $250 million plan, known as the Hurricane Intensity Forecasting and Impacts Projection Program, or HiFi, to improve both short-term and long-term hurricane forecasts and help communities better prepare for severe events.

Participants:
    --Peter Webster: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta --Robert A. Houze: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
    --Mark DeMaria: National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Colorado Springs
    --Greg Holland: Scientist, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado AGU Session A13E/A21H/A22B
LOCATION OF PRESS CONFERENCES
San Francisco's Moscone Convention Center, Room 232 Moscone South Register in advance or in the Press Room (238 Moscone South). See http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm06/?content=media

VIA TELEPHONE Reporters who cannot attend may listen to the press conferences and ask questions. In the United States and Canada, call toll-free: (888) 481-3032. From the rest of the world call (not toll-free): 1-617-801-9600.

When prompted, enter this code: 115139

The code is the same for all press conferences, but you must place a new call for each one, even in consecutive hours.

Contact:
David Hosansky, NCAR Media Relations
303-497-8611 (office)
303-819-3179 (cell)
hosansky@ucar.edu



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